## Monday, September 30, 2013

### 不怕回调或股灾

asx (Australian Securities Exchange)  > 5,000

djia ( Dow Jones Industrial Average) > 15,000

## Saturday, September 28, 2013

### bertam

b线与 d 线是相等高度的。

1.08 - 0.75 = 0.32, 也即是 32sen

100% x 32 / 75 = 43%

RM1.08 是非常保守的算法。

## Monday, September 23, 2013

maybank 不能买卖，我还有 rhb, pbb, cimb, HL, kenanga的户口可以进行买卖啊。

# Benjamin Graham formula

The Benjamin Graham formula is an intrinsic value formula proposed by investor and professor, Benjamin Graham, often referred to as the "father of value investing". Published in his book, The Intelligent Investor, Graham devised the formula for investors to be able to quickly determine how rationally priced their stocks were.[1] As with any valuation formula, the final number is not designed to give a true value of a stock, but only to approximate its range of possible values.[2]
Note that Graham never intended this formula to be used to evaluate stocks.[3]

## Formula calculation

In The Intelligent Investor, Benjamin Graham describes a formula he used to value stocks. He disregarded complicated calculations and kept his formula simple. In his words: "Our study of the various methods has led us to suggest a foreshortened and quite simple formula for the evaluation of growth stocks, which is intended to produce figures fairly close to those resulting from the more refined mathematical calculations."
The formula as described by Graham in the 1962 edition of Security Analysis, is as follows:

V = Intrinsic Value
EPS = Trailing Twelve Months Earnings Per Share
8.5 = P/E base for a no-growth company
g = reasonably expected 7 to 10 year growth rate
Where the expected annual growth rate "should be that expected over the next seven to ten years." Graham’s formula took no account of prevailing interest rates.

## To apply this approach to a buy-sell decision, each company’s relative Graham value (RGV) can be determined by dividing the stock’s intrinsic value V* by its current price P:

$RGV = \cfrac{V*}{P}$

An RGV of less than one indicates an overvalued stock and should not be bought, while an RGV of greater than one indicates an undervalued stock and should be bought.
Because of the measures it uses, difficulties may be encountered in evaluating both new and small company stocks using this model as well as any stock with inconsistent EPS growth. On one hand, it is efficient because of its simplicity but on the other, it is limited by its simplicity because the model does not work well for every stock.
Thus, the calculation is subjective when considered on its own. It should never be used in isolation; the investor must take into account other factors such as:
• Net Current Asset Value in order to determine the financial viability of the firm in question
• Current Asset Value in order to determine short-term financial viability of the firm
• Debt to equity ratio
• Quality of the Current Assets.

intrinsic value = eps x ( 8.5 + 2g)

 Year Eps (sen) Eps grow Eps grow % 2004 12 12 2005 13 13-12=1 1/12 8 2006 13 13-13=0 0/13 0 2007 30 30-13=17 17/13 131 2008 30 30-30=0 0/30 0 2009 14 14-30= -16 -16/30 -53 2010 26 26-14=12 12/14 86 2011 41 41-26=15 15/26 58 2012 45 45-41=4 4/41 10 2013 65 65-45=20 20/45 44 Total 289sen 284%

= 8 + 0 + 131 + 0 – 53  + 86 + 58 + 10 + 44 /  9

= 284 / 9 = 32%

g= 32% = 0.32

eps = 65sen (2013财政年）

$V* = EPS \times (8.5 + 2g)$ +  Free Cash flow per share - borrowing per share

=65sen x ( 8.5 + 2 x 0.32 )  + ( 96,067,723 / 80,064,000 )  - 0

= 65sen x 9.14 + 120sen per share

= 594.1sen + 120sen

= RM7.14

$V* = \cfrac{EPS \times (8.5 + 2g) \times 4.4}{Y}$

4.4: the average yield of high-grade corporate bonds in 1962, when this model was introduced
4.4 是在 1962年，现在大慨也是如此

Y: the current yield on AAA corporate bonds = 4.54， 是从moody取得。

## Tuesday, September 17, 2013

### 超级印钞机， 芋头

cash cow ? 现金牛

Net increase in cash and cash equivalents

Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of year  =    120,487,000

Cash and cash equivalents at end of the period   =    143,320,000

2014财政年第一季业绩报告里，

## Saturday, September 14, 2013

### 该买什么股？

maybank, 马银行。

 日期 马银行闭市价 31-1-2013 8.55 28-2-2013 8.82 29-3-2013 9.02 30-4-2013 9.62 31-5-2013 10.18 28-6-2013 10.40 31-7-2013 10.26 30-8-2013 10.00 8个月共 76.85

## Wednesday, September 11, 2013

### 对 pintaras jaya 的一个信念

by the end of second quarter of financial year ended 30 june 2014 = 2014 财政年第二季尾，

1st quarter of financial year ended 30 june 2014 是 1st july 2013 到 30th september 2013
2nd quarter of financial year ended 30 june 2014 是 1st october 2013 到 31st december 2013

## Sunday, September 08, 2013

### 日本股，2020年夏季奥运会

panamy, perstim, jtinter, texchem, aeon, aeoncr（一时只想到这些）。

panamy 电子产品，加上它的品牌知名度。

aeon, aeoncr 零售业，它的霸级市场，吞掉 tesco,....

perstim 锡包装

texchem 的sushi king, 该是最健康的餐食了吧，所以可以乘机推广。

ref ：

http://www.latimes.com/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-2020-olympics-site-chosen-20130907,0,3936675.story

10年 RM4680

20年 RM9360

30年 RM14,040

## Wednesday, September 04, 2013

### 鹏发 2012年投资失利

2012年投资失利，亏了 5.4mil

## Tuesday, September 03, 2013

### ptaras 在甚麽领域赚钱

 2013 2012 建筑部 12.5mil 14.8mil 制造部 1.8mil 2.6mil 投资部 共 20mil 15.3mil

12.5mil 是建筑部贡献，去年同期赚14.8mil

1.8mil 是制造部，比去年少了31%,，年赚 2.6mil

2013年第四季股票 投资/投机 赚 20mil -12.5mil - 1.8mil = 5.7mil

2012财政年第四季总共赚15.3mil.

14.8mil + 2.6mil = 17.4mil,

## Monday, September 02, 2013

### pintaras jaya 2013财政年第四季业绩报告点评

RM125,331,000 / 80,064,000 = RM1.57

2013财政年第四季每股净赚20sen, 建议派单层息 15sen，